Tracy Kivunyu Mose Equity Research Analyst, Telecoms
Vahaj Ahmed Head of Industrials Equity Research
Ayodeji Dawodu Equity Research Analyst, Financials
July 10 2019
Mixta Real Estate
Developing the affordability opportunity
Mixta Real Estate is a developer specialising in residential housing and serviced plots across Africa. Mixta has undertaken developments across all market segments, but its near-term focus will be on affordable housing as it seeks to capitalise on the opportunity provided by the c50mn African housing deficit. Nigeria accounts for 34% of that estimated deficit and we expect the country’s importance to Mixta’s revenue to continue, as the company works on an affordable housing project in partnership with the Nigerian government – the Family Homes Fund (FHF).
Revenue upside from affordable housing projects and geographical expansion. Our revenue forecasts, which exclude Mixta’s Ethiopian entry, yield a 65% five-year CAGR to EUR313mn in 2023 (68% to EUR337mn including Ethiopia), driven by affordable housing projects, particularly in Nigeria and Morocco. Nigeria accounts for the lion’s share of the affordable housing opportunity, with over 24,000 units set to be delivered over our forecast period under the FHF. Mixta is also in discussions with the Ethiopian government to develop affordable housing there and is working on opportunities in the mid-market segment in Ivory Coast. We expect revenue diversification to lower Nigeria’s contribution to Mixta’s total revenue to 47% in 2023 from 65% in 2018...
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