India, Pakistan: "Air strike" raises tensions, NOT likelihood of hot military conflict

Indian jets have crossed over to Pakistan Kashmir, but the nature of the incursion and, most importantly, the public reaction by Pakistan's military spokesperson confirms our view that escalation to a hot military conflict – defined as combat in excess of anything seen since the 1998 nuclear tests – remains unlikely.

For the impact of this event on the probability of a hot military conflict, look at the public reaction of the Pakistan military: it does not read like "war talk". The Pakistan military’s spokesperson's (Major General Asif Ghafoor) stated that...

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