Algeria: Spillover risks after split in domestic elite and protests



Unless Algeria's succession crisis transitions into a lasting, full-blown security crisis, then the impact on the wider region – from neighbours Morocco and Tunisia to further afield in the EU or Nigeria – or rival oil and gas exporters is limited, but there is considerable uncertainty ahead. 

The protest situation is dynamic, security may worsen and there will be concerns over worst-case scenarios from those who draw parallels with Algeria's 1990s civil war or recent post-"Arab Spring" violent outcomes in Libya, Syria and Yemen. Below we summarise recent events and argue for only partially endorsing these concerns.

A temporary deterioration in security cannot be ruled out and this would likely embolden the military to reasserts its dominance over its rivals within "Le Pouvoir" establishment...


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