Incumbent President Joko Widodo ("Jokowi") was officially declared the winner of elections on 21 May, with 55.5% of the vote (compared to 53.2% in 2014). His coalition has also secured over half of Parliament. This is positive, but in line with our expectation and opinion polls prior to the 17 April election, as well as the sample vote count immediately after. In a repeat of the 2014 election, challenger Prabowo is likely to mount a legal challenge to the results (he has until the 24 May to do so) but we expect low probability of the result being overturned or serious civic unrest.
More of the same steady macro growth, despite Jokowi's ambition
Our expectation remains that Indonesia is on track to maintain its steady growth, ie c5%, and not the 7% aspired to by Jokowi, because of the structural constraints that inhibit more decisive policy implementation...
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