Oil winners-losers in small EM: pre-OPEC+, post ytd rally



After the 34% rally in oil price (Brent) since its end-December 2018 low and in advance of this weekend's preliminary OPEC+ meeting (17-18 March), we briefly revisit data on macroeconomic exposure (net fuel import or export positions) and equity market performance in small Emerging markets. 

The performance of Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar (under-performing oil exporters) and Egypt, Kenya (out-performing oil importers) appear the most incongruous (when viewed through the lens of oil exposure alone). Among oil-related individual stocks, Dana Gas (Egypt, Iraq-KRI), Seplat (Nigeria), Sabic (Saudi) and PTT (Thailand) are notable underperformers relative to oil price, and Ecopetrol (Colombia), Gulf Keystone (Iraq-KRI), Medco Energi (Indonesia) are notable outperformers...


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