The Aramco attack and 10 reasons why an Iran war is still unlikely
We reiterate our view on why an Iran war is unlikely following last week’s attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities. The vulnerability to attack of core GCC oil assets, regardless of whether or not Iran was the ultimate perpetrator in this instance, demonstrates the cost to the GCC, the oil market and the global economy should conflict with Iran escalate into a full-blown war. This perhaps also explains the apparent absence of an immediate retaliatory military response by those laying the blame for these attacks on Iran.
In May, after four oil tankers were damaged by explosions near Fujairah port, we listed 10 reasons why war was unlikely, reaffirming that view after attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman in June...
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