Tunisia: Presidential election portends coalition and economic risks ahead
Low turnout, success for the outsider candidates and confirmation of the fracture of the ruling Parliamentary party (Nidaa Tounes): these are our observations from the exit poll data following round 1 of the Tunisia Presidential election.
This reinforces our previously published view that there are material risks to the formation of a coherent and empowered coalition following the upcoming Parliamentary election (6 October).
Fragmented politics will strain Tunisia's pursuit of fiscal consolidation and structural reform (and, by implication, the conditions of the 4-year US$2.9bn IMF loan which runs to May 2020)...
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