Ukraine election: Still a three-horse race

With just two days to go before the presidential election on Sunday, there doesn’t appear to be any last-minute decisive move in voting intentions, according to opinion polls. It remains a three-horse race. Comedian Volodymyr Zelenski is (comfortably) in the lead, as he has done for the last two months, while incumbent Petro Poroshenko and former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko generally vie for second place in an expected run-off on 21 April. Barring a shock, no candidate looks likely to achieve an outright win in the first round.

It, therefore, looks like Zelensky versus one in the second round, according to the polls. This is in contrast to opinions we heard in Kiev in early February, where most people we spoke to in the business community still expected a Tymoshenko-Poroshenko second round run-off. Barring a huge surprise over the weekend, that seems unlikely given Zelensky’s position in the polls...

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