Vietnam: Succession risks more delays, not a change of course
Concerns over the health of President Trong should not alter the broadly positive top-down, long-term investment case in Vietnam equities. However, given the positive consensus on Vietnam that prevails among foreign investors, it is worth highlighting the risks that result from a potential succession. We expect any new leader to maintain Vietnam's current economic and foreign policy mix.
Succession risk is also diluted by the much less centralised and individual-centric model of political leadership that prevails in Vietnam compared to China. The main downside risk is of a near-term slowdown in government decision-making, something which would compound the delays we already hear about as a result of the anti-corruption drive – see our recent report, Vietnam: Still high growth, low accessibility (11 April 2019).
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